There's an old proverb that says, "in every bet there is a fool and a thief," with punters generally playing the former and bookies the latter.And you can't help but think the thieves and the fools are exchanging money once again as England are priced as short as 6-1 third favourites to win the World Cup. Why are punters backing their country at such a short price? This is the England who revel in glorious failure, the England who can't convert penalties and the England who haven't ever won a major tournament, except the one some time in the 1960s.
Patriotism is a passport to poverty when it comes to backing England in football tournaments. Never has a truer line been spoken when it comes to sentences involving the letter "P". Although I do also like, Fail To Prepare And You Prepare To Fail, and of course the old standard five Ps ditty – Prior Planning Prevents Poor Performance.
The two countries ahead of England in the betting are Spain (4-1) and Brazil (5-1).
To be priced just behind Brazil is, quite frankly, preposterous. The Samba Stars did record three consecutive home draws against Argentina, Columbia and Bolivia before embarking on a five-match winning streak from April. Indeed, Dunga's men, five-time winners you know, qualified for South Africa with three games to spare, securing their place with a commanding 3-1 win over Argentina in Rosario.
Spain are the resounding favourites on form. Their 2-0 win over France last week was their first in France since 1968 and extended an already astonishing run to 42 wins in 45 outings.
The team against France: Iker Casillas, Carles Puyol, Xabi Alonso, David Villa, Cesc Fabregas, Andres Iniesta, David Silva, Alvaro Arbeloa, Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique. Try and pick the weak link out of that lot.
Much of our repeatedly foolish optimism stems for two reasons. Firstly, we always become optimistic before a major tournament. And why not? Being an optimist or a pessimist makes no difference to the outcome but the optimist has a better time of it.
Whipped into a frenzy of excitement by the media we put to the backs of our minds England's rich history of inglorious exits and below-par performances and we start to believe in the impossible dream. It worked for Susan Boyle.
Secondly, we now have a stern-jawed Italian as coach, a man who doesn't suffer fools gladly – WAGs and infidelities are not tolerated.
In light of recent failures (Sven and Steve) Capello looks the real deal and so far, he's not put a foot out of place.
Is he our saviour? They call it the Impossible Job, and I always used to wonder what that could be. John Terry's wife? Craig Bellamy's shrink? Paul Merson's speech therapist?
No, the impossible job is manager of the England football team. Ah yes, that'll be the job that pays £6 million a year and features free round-the-world travel.
Some of the flak England managers have copped has been cruel (especially in Steve McLaren's case), but much of it was deserved (especially in Steve McLaren's case).
The job, though not the secretary, is now in Fabio Capello's hands after once being handled by Sven-Goran Eriksson.
Now Capello, after restoring England's pride must guide England to the 2010 World Cup finals or risk the wrath of the media. Hell hath no fury like the media when the national football team is humiliated.
Argentina look terrific value at 10-1 in light of their recent win over Germany and you can pick up prices of 14-1 for both Germany and Italy, countries who have a rich history of getting it right more often than not when it comes to peaking at a World Cup. I'd rather back any of those countries at those beefier prices over England. You can also snap up 14-1 about Holland too and 18-1 for out-of-sorts France. Just thought I'd let you know.
Turning my attention away from the World Cup and on to the Champions League now. Another maxim I usually adhere to rigidly when it comes to betting is, "never back a team who doesn't need to win". Manchester United do not need to win against AC Milan on Wednesday to qualify for the next stage of the competition. I still believe they will, at a fairly appetising price of 8-11. The Italians relied on a counter-attacking game in the first leg, a tactic they won't be able to deploy this time round.
It should be role-reversal at Old Trafford with the likes of Nani and Valencia playing in a packed midfield waiting to break at pace and satisfy Wayne Rooney's appetite for goals, which is currently insatiable. Make sure you're on the Red Devils.
TOP TIP: MANCHESTER UNITED TO BEAT AC MILAN AT 8-11 WITH CORAL
